미중 무역전쟁, 글로벌 유지 공급망 강타
이 논문은 trade policy shocks로 인한 cascading disruptions가 production networks를 통해 어떻게 전파되는지 분석하기 위해 linear programming 기반의 Input-Output (IO) system 모델을 개발했습니다. 개발된 모델을 통해 trade reallocation과 production expansion과 같은 완화 메커니즘이 공급망 충격을 어떻게 경감시키는지 통합적인 프레임워크 내에서 분석했습니다. 이를 U.S.-China trade war로 인한 global oilseeds supply chain에 적용하여, 특정 지역의 충격이 전 세계적 output 손실로 이어지는 과정과 그 완화 전략의 효과를 정량적으로 입증했습니다.
arXiv:2606.30685v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global supply chains are highly interconnected, making them vulnerable to cascading disruptions induced by trade policy shocks. Understanding how such disruptions propagate through production networks, and how mitigation mechanisms such as trade reallocation and production adjustment can alleviate their impacts, remains a central challenge. In this work, we develop a linear programming formulation of an Input-Output (IO) system that captures cascading supply-chain disruptions together with trade reallocation and production expansion. Our formulation yields a system-level equilibrium characterization that enables the joint analysis of disruption propagation and mitigation within a unified framework. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing approximate equilibrium solutions by minimizing total unmet demand in large IO systems. We apply our approach to tariff-induced disruptions in the global oilseeds supply chain arising from the U.S.-China trade war. Our results show that a localized 70% disruption to flows from the U.S. oilseeds sector to China leads to a 3.27% loss in global output, with China experiencing a disproportionate loss of 14.02%. As a counterfactual mitigation strategy, allowing a 20% reallocation from Brazil's oilseed sector to China significantly reduces global output losses to 1.36%, although pressure remains high on final-demand flows. We further investigate production expansion as an additional mitigation mechanism and show that it introduces tradeoffs between reducing global final-demand losses and protecting Brazil's domestic flows. Domestic reallocation disproportionately shifts losses toward smaller economies, while globally sourced expansion redistributes losses more broadly across the network.